The View from a Conservative: Obama by a Landslide

Generally I fight right wingers to be delusional, nasty and, quite honestly, pathetically whiny whether they are winning or losing, though particularly when they are losing.

I took notice of one right wing website that was an exception: Election Projection. Now I often disagree with the guy who runs this site, but he is clearly smarter, more reasonable, more reality based and far less pathetically whiny than his compatriots. I read him in 2004 when his side was still on top. I read him (and I think quoted him) in 2006 when he was one of the few conservatives who saw the Blue Wave coming and recognized honestly the flaws within his own party that were contributing to it. This year I continue to read him. Here is what he wrote about the 2008 election on Tuesday, Oct. 28th:

President: Eight days from Election Day, here is this blogger's conclusion: Barack Obama will win this election in a landslide. He will capture at least 350 electoral votes and win the popular vote by 7% or more. McCain may benefit from some measure of the Bradley Effect, but that advantage will be overwhelmed by African-American turnout, Palin-induced defections by moderates, and under-funded, unenthusiastic GOP get-out-the-vote efforts. This week's update shows Obama with a 375-163 electoral vote edge. The actual result may be a tad closer, but I'd be less surprised if his victory surpassed even that landslide tally.

My comment: I STILL see possible ways McCain could eke out a win, particularly given the election fraud the Republicans have already been engaged in, leading even to arrests. The basic scenario is this: EVERY state that is in the "weak Obama" or "tossup" category would have to, by hook or by crook, go for McCain (I tend to use Electoral-Vote.com for my main source of predictions, though Election Projection and Pollster.com are two other sources I use). Obama can get just shy of winning through all the "strong Obama" states, but he needs one "weak Obama" or "tossup" to tie or win. McCain has to pretty much sweep these (possible New Hampshire aside) to win. Unlikely. But not impossible. That said, I am basically in agreement with Election Projection. I think it is also worth noting that even this conservative recognizes that the only thing in McCain's favor this time around is the thinly veiled racism of the Bradley effect.

Senate: Three weeks in a row now the projected make-up of the Senate has stood at 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans and 2 Independents. All eight of the projected Democratic takeovers in the Senate remain probable as of this update. Alaska Senator Ted Stevens' conviction undermines his re-election bid - but, ironically, does not completely derail it. Even as a convicted felon, Stevens can continue his campaign and be elected, should Alaskans choose to send him back to Washington. Let me add parenthetically that I could not vote for Stevens and, frankly, I hope he loses.

Here is an example of why I like this guy: unlike the vast majority of Republicans, he rejects corrupt and hypocritical Republicans, at least when that is accompanied by a conviction. I opposed some corrupt Democrats in my day and once all but endorsed a Republican in a local judicial race. I also have publicly said Mahoney in Florida is on his own and deserves to lose to his Republican opponent. And I agree, Stevens deserves to lose, but I said that BEFORE he was convicted.

Governors: GOPer Pat McCrory's bid to succeed outgoing North Carolina Democratic Governor Mike Easley is looking stronger as we near Election Day. He has moved back in the lead over Democrat Beverly Perdue. I believe he will win. It also looks as though he will be the only Republican to take a Democrat-held office in a statewide race this year.

There are two Democratic seats that are threatened: Washington State and North Carolina governors. I think the Obama wave will carry both to victory, but it will be close and we could lose both.

House: The blue wave of 2006 may be matched by the blue wave of 2008...As a result of over seventy pundit rating changes which I incorporated into the House projections over the weekend, the size of the blue wave this year has grown considerably. No less than seven additional GOP seats find themselves in the Democratic column in this week's House update. They are Florida CD-8, Michigan CD-9, Minnesota CD-6, New Jersey CD-3, New Mexico CD-2, Ohio CD-1 and Washington CD-8. These seven newcomers push the projected Democratic haul in the House to 25 seats. Three GOP takeovers reduce the net gain to 22. Overall, the Democrats are projected this week to enjoy an amazing 81-seat advantage (257-176) in the House come January.

The list of hotly-contested House races here at Election Projection has also swelled by one this week. Six additional districts have moved into the competitive category, replacing five previously competitive seats which are no longer deemed at risk. The new vulnerable districts - all Republican - are Arizona CD-3, California CD-50, Indiana CD-3, Minnesota CD-6, Nebraska CD-2 and South Carolina CD-1. Races dropping off this week are Indiana CD-9, Kansas CD-3, Minnesota CD-1, Oregon CD-5 and Pennsylvania CD-6 (the lone Republican seat in the list).

Landslide. I been hearing it from some liberals for awhile and expressed caution. We need to do the work to get the job done. I will repeat for about the 1000th time: Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to fumble an election, and never underestimate the ability of the Republicans to lie, steal and cheat their way to a win. Anything can happen. BUT, a landslide seems just about inevitable at this point. Now we hear it from one of the most reality based conservative websites there is.