PA Senate: Another Reason to Support Joe Sestak for Senate
A new survey discussed in today's Pittsburgh Post Gazette details Specter's recent fall from grace with Pennsylvania voters over the past several months. This fall has been substantial enough that Specter now trails ultra Right Wing GOP candidate Pat Toomey in a general election scenario. Specter's worst nightmare has come true. He bailed out of the GOP specifically to avoid losing a primary to Toomey; a virtual guarantee given the insanity of so many of today's GOP voters. The thinking was that he would have very favorable chances against Toomey in the general election where ALL Pennsylvania voters had a say. Well now it looks like the bloom is off the Specter rose:Voters in Pennsylvania, now by the slightest margin, favor Republican Pat Toomey over Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter in the 2010 race for the U.S. Senate, a poll released this morning says.
Mr. Toomey, with 43 percent, edges Mr. Specter's 42 percent, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
This reverses a 45 percent to 44 percent lead July 22 by Mr. Specter and wipes out a 20-point lead he held May 4 just after Mr. Specter had switched from Republican to Democrat to escape a primary battle with Mr. Toomey...
Mr. Specter, who was first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980, remains far ahead of his Democratic primary challenger, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, 44 to 25 percent. But Mr. Sestak runs almost as well as Mr. Specter against Mr. Toomey, trailing the Republican only 38 to 35 percent.
So if both Specter and Sestak trail Toomey by 1-3 points, then why do I think Sestak would be more likely to win the general election against Toomey? You'll notice that unlike the Toomey/Specter numbers (which add up to nearly 90% indicating very few undecideds), the Toomey/Sestak numbers add up to only about 70% indicating many more undecideds. This bodes well for Sestak, who sports a sterling resume and a military background that would attract many independent (and probably a few conservative) Pennsylvania voters. Joe Sestak is the kind of guy that becomes more popular the more people know about him, and he will excite the Democratic base in a way that Specter cannot.
I remain formally neutral in this. I am sure I would prefer Sestak to Specter, but I am not yet sure this is a battleground I choose to take part in just yet. But it is worth keeping track of. I am interested in comments on this from my Pennsylvania readers.