The Third Party Factor: Greens, Nader and Libertarians
Third Parties are a waste of time if you want to win the Presidency. This has been proven time after time. Ross Perot, Pat Buchannan, Ralph Nader...none even came close. Even an extremely popular former President, Teddy Roosevelt, couldn't make it as a third party candidate. Our political system is and always has been a two party system on the Presidential level. That is not about to change unless there are major changes to the system itself.
But third party candidates can act contrary to their own values by acting as spoilers. Ross Perot helped defeat the Republican Party. Ralph Nader helped defeat the Democratic Party. In each case they acted contrary to their own values by aiding the party that is more distant from their own stated values. Nader goes as far as actually collaborating with John McCain in order to hurt the Democratic Party, even though his values more closely resemble those of most Democrats than pretty much ANY Republican.
This year could prove very interesting in terms of third parties. Ralph Nader is definitely running. I would argue that he is trivial by now. His stupidity in 2000 and his refusal to admit his error has alienated practically all Progressive Democrats, making his run insignificant. He has die hard supporters who wouldn't vote for any Democrat or Repub if their life depended on it (which, arguably, it does). The only question is will he run on his own or will the Greens welcome him back. The Greens rejected Nader in 2004, and it went a long way to reforming their image. The Greens will ruin themselves yet again if they run Nader. Nader is a has been. The Greens can either be has beens along with Nader, or go their separate way from Nader as they did in 2004. Either way, if Obama is the nominee, the Green/Nader factor will be innsignificant. In all honesty, I know many Greens who rejoined the Democratic Party so they could work for Obama. If anything, Obama is uniting the Greens, Democrats and Independents. If Hillary is the nominee, the Nader and Green factors may play a slightly greater role, but my guess is not enough to affect the election the way it did in 2000.
The real interesting development comes from the right. John McCain must be soiling his pants now that the Libertarian Party has nominated former Republican Bob Barr as their candidate. Bob Barr has a good chance of drawing off conservative votes from McCain. Bob Barr is an odd mix of conservative values which largely can appeal to just about any Republican and many Independents. Barr is more of a Barry Goldwater Republican than a Bush-McCain Republican. He is an old-school Republican from before the Republican Party abandoned Republican values. He opposes abortion. He opposes same-sex marriage, but believes it should be up to the states. He opposes federal income tax and wants to abolish the IRS. All of these stands appeal to Republicans. Some appeal to Republicans more than Libertarians, in fact. But the number one difference between McCain and Barr is that McCain has signed on 100% to Bush's Iraq Quagmire and the un-patriotic Patriot Act, while Bob Barr is a strong opponent of both. Bob Barr is a vocal, right wing opponent to both the Iraq Quagmire and the invasion of civil liberties that McCain and Bush favor. McCain thus becomes the candidate for the Bush Republicans while Barr is the candidate for Libertarians and more traditional Republicans. This is a genuine split in the right wing that just might sink McCain.
From my point of view Bob Barr is a right wing fanatic, perhaps even more than John McCain. But I have heard him on Air America, and on certain issues (the war and Civil Liberties) he makes more sense than most Republicans. What is most interesting is Bob Barr has now become the real conservative maverick that John McCain once claimed to be before he embraced Bush's failed policies. Bob Barr is what John McCain could have been, and this is the true threat to McCain. Many supported McCain because he HAD been a maverick. Now that he is running as another Bush, Bob Barr starts to look very appealing to many Republicans and Independents. Barr can't win because our system couldn't even give Teddy Roosevelt, perhaps the quintessential American President, a chance as a third party candidate. But Barr has appeal in the precise areas where McCain should have been strong but has turned out weak.
Bush's core 30% of voters will go for McCain as the continuation of Bush's failed policies. The remaining Republicans will split between Barr and McCain. Independents will probably split among McCain, Barr and the Democrat (particularly if it is Obama). Democrats will go solidly for the Democratic nominee. This is very likely to play out the way Senator Chuck Schumer predicts, as I reported last week.
You can find out more about Bob Barr here.
But third party candidates can act contrary to their own values by acting as spoilers. Ross Perot helped defeat the Republican Party. Ralph Nader helped defeat the Democratic Party. In each case they acted contrary to their own values by aiding the party that is more distant from their own stated values. Nader goes as far as actually collaborating with John McCain in order to hurt the Democratic Party, even though his values more closely resemble those of most Democrats than pretty much ANY Republican.
This year could prove very interesting in terms of third parties. Ralph Nader is definitely running. I would argue that he is trivial by now. His stupidity in 2000 and his refusal to admit his error has alienated practically all Progressive Democrats, making his run insignificant. He has die hard supporters who wouldn't vote for any Democrat or Repub if their life depended on it (which, arguably, it does). The only question is will he run on his own or will the Greens welcome him back. The Greens rejected Nader in 2004, and it went a long way to reforming their image. The Greens will ruin themselves yet again if they run Nader. Nader is a has been. The Greens can either be has beens along with Nader, or go their separate way from Nader as they did in 2004. Either way, if Obama is the nominee, the Green/Nader factor will be innsignificant. In all honesty, I know many Greens who rejoined the Democratic Party so they could work for Obama. If anything, Obama is uniting the Greens, Democrats and Independents. If Hillary is the nominee, the Nader and Green factors may play a slightly greater role, but my guess is not enough to affect the election the way it did in 2000.
The real interesting development comes from the right. John McCain must be soiling his pants now that the Libertarian Party has nominated former Republican Bob Barr as their candidate. Bob Barr has a good chance of drawing off conservative votes from McCain. Bob Barr is an odd mix of conservative values which largely can appeal to just about any Republican and many Independents. Barr is more of a Barry Goldwater Republican than a Bush-McCain Republican. He is an old-school Republican from before the Republican Party abandoned Republican values. He opposes abortion. He opposes same-sex marriage, but believes it should be up to the states. He opposes federal income tax and wants to abolish the IRS. All of these stands appeal to Republicans. Some appeal to Republicans more than Libertarians, in fact. But the number one difference between McCain and Barr is that McCain has signed on 100% to Bush's Iraq Quagmire and the un-patriotic Patriot Act, while Bob Barr is a strong opponent of both. Bob Barr is a vocal, right wing opponent to both the Iraq Quagmire and the invasion of civil liberties that McCain and Bush favor. McCain thus becomes the candidate for the Bush Republicans while Barr is the candidate for Libertarians and more traditional Republicans. This is a genuine split in the right wing that just might sink McCain.
From my point of view Bob Barr is a right wing fanatic, perhaps even more than John McCain. But I have heard him on Air America, and on certain issues (the war and Civil Liberties) he makes more sense than most Republicans. What is most interesting is Bob Barr has now become the real conservative maverick that John McCain once claimed to be before he embraced Bush's failed policies. Bob Barr is what John McCain could have been, and this is the true threat to McCain. Many supported McCain because he HAD been a maverick. Now that he is running as another Bush, Bob Barr starts to look very appealing to many Republicans and Independents. Barr can't win because our system couldn't even give Teddy Roosevelt, perhaps the quintessential American President, a chance as a third party candidate. But Barr has appeal in the precise areas where McCain should have been strong but has turned out weak.
Bush's core 30% of voters will go for McCain as the continuation of Bush's failed policies. The remaining Republicans will split between Barr and McCain. Independents will probably split among McCain, Barr and the Democrat (particularly if it is Obama). Democrats will go solidly for the Democratic nominee. This is very likely to play out the way Senator Chuck Schumer predicts, as I reported last week.
You can find out more about Bob Barr here.
posted by mole333 | 6:30 PM
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