MICHIGAN FOCUS: MI-7 and MI-9

Been pushing two Michigan races for awhile, predicting that they will be hot races in 2008 particularly given the fact that Michigan is something of a swing state. Seems Daily Kos is also developing an interest in these races:

Michigan's seventh House district became a top-tier pickup opportunity for Democrats today when State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer announced he'll be challenging first-term wingnut Congressman Tim Walberg.

Local blog Walberg Watch had a guest post from Schauer today:

As you’ve noted in thorough detail on this site, Walberg continually obeys the extreme Republican agenda in DC, instead of the practical views of the constituents who depend on him. He has voted against a minimum wage increase, but for privatizing social security. He opposed expanding health care to more than 4 million uninsured kids, and he refused to support recommendations from the 9/11 commission that would help keep us safe. He didn't have a problem putting out a press release claiming credit for critical local funding, but couldn't bring himself to actually vote for the bill.

Given Schauer's strong record of running in the district - the AP points out that most of his state senate district is in MI-07 - and Walberg's rubberstamp Republican record (he's a Club for Growth favorite), this should be an extremely good opportunity for a Democratic pickup. In fact, before Schauer entered the race, a DCCC poll apparently showed him beating Walberg by 3 points.

Additionally, Michigan's ninth district gained a strong candidate a couple weeks ago when Gary Peters entered the race. Peters (who attended YearlyKos) is a former state senator and resigned from his post as lottery commissioner in order to run for this seat.

This seat is ripe for a pickup as well:

Michigan's 9th Congressional District will be one of the top targeted races for 2008. The DCCC has already aired ads exposing Knollenberg's awful record on veterans. Knollenberg is under fire from citizen action groups, and has been constantly bashed in letters to the editor throughout the district. Knollenberg is beatable. He narrowly won the '06 election with 51% of the vote, and has 15% less money now than he did this time that cycle.

It appears the 9th District has undergone a sudden blue trend. However the Democratic base in the district has been growing steadily for the last eight years. Despite the growing Democratic base, Joe Knollenberg continues to cruise to electoral success versus weak challengers.

In 2002 David Fink performed 2.21% below the Democratic base, with 39.89% of the vote, despite raising 1.2 million and contributing 1.2 million of his own. In 2004 Steve Reifman performed 6.80% below the Democratic base, with 39.54% of the vote. In 2006 Nancy Skinner performed 4.28% below the Democratic base, with 46.21% of the vote. The Democratic base in 2006 was 50.49% (in '02 it was 42.19%, in '04 46.34%).

By contrast, Peters has a strong record in the district:

In the 2002 Attorney General race, Gary Peters performed at or above the Democratic base in 72% of 9th district precincts (234 out of 325). This certainly puts the candidate's performance in perspective. While losing by 4,677 votes in Bloomfield Township, Peters actually performed above base in all 36 precincts of the township. In his former home city of Rochester Hills, he outperformed base by 4.66%, in 30 of 32 precincts. Despite losing the AG race Peters out performed the Democratic base in 72% of the 9th District. Consider that this is a statewide election, and each candidate did not necessarily concentrate on persuading 9th District voters. Peters was above base in 19 of 22 jurisdictions, and just slightly under base in the other 3 (within 2.2%).

Michigan has a strong local blogosphere and now they'll have a couple of really exciting races to cover.

I will add that the Michigan Democratic Party is shaping up to be one of the stronger ones in the nation. I highlight both of these races as well as the Michigan Democratic Party it self on my Michigan Act Blue Page.