Progressive Democrat Issue 104: LOOKING TO 2008: The Top 10 Most Vulnerable Freshmen

For those who like to look at elections strategically and well in advance, Daily Kos had an article a ways back discussing the ten House races with freshmen likely to be vulnerable in 2008. These are the most likely battlefields of 2008 and we need to be thinking IN ADVANCE about defending those that are Democratic held and taking those that are Republican held.

Here they are: (from the dKos article)

* Jerry McNerney (CA-11) - Pombo has yet to rule out running again. (It that respect, it will be interesting to see what the FEC says about his fundraising efforts in the January.) report.
* Vern Buchanan (FL-13) - Cizilla’s opinion is that Jennings is hurting the Dems chance to take it later by continuing to fight the result.
* Tim Mahoney (FL-16) - It was close, and the 2008 Republican will certainly have better circumstances than sleazeball Mark Foley’s last-minute replacement, Joe Negron.
* Jim Marshall (GA-8) - (Not even a Freshman, since he was first elected in 2002. Cillizza justified its inclusion because of Georgia’s mid-decade re-redistricting.)
* Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20) - She’ll have a harder time against a fresh fighting recruit, especially given the large registration advantage in the district.
* Robin Hayes (NC-08) - Larry Kissell has already announced a rematch for 2008. Hayes only won by 329 votes this time.
* Jean Schmidt (OH-02) - Paul Hackett hasn’t ruled out running again, and has a decent shot at taking it. Victoria Wulsin might run again.
* Zack Space (OH-18) will have a harder time of it with a scandal free Republican opponent. (Though the Ohio Republican party probably won’t be purged of all its rancid decay even by 2008.)
* Chris Carney (PA-10) will have the same problem as Space in OH-18.
* Nick Lampson (TX-22) - Same as Space & Carney. (But perhaps less so. He’s served in the House before.) The Republican primary field is likely to be big, and rough.

I should note that FL-13 was probably won by Jennings, but is the clearest case to date of Republicans using eVote machines to steal an election. Of these, CA-11 and NY-20 will be ones we should be proud to defend because I have hopes for McNerney and Gillibrand in particular. FL-13 and NC-8 really should have been won this time around and we can win next time if we put our hearts in it. OH-2 will be harder. Note that FL and OH each have 2 target seats and so, in addition to being top Presidential battle grounds, will likely be top House battlegrounds.

We can wait for the Republicans to take the initiative in these races or we can take the initiative ourselves. Donate if you can through the above links or, if you live in those districts, please get active as soon as you can to keep the Democratic grassroots alive, well and active. The right wing fanatics in charge of the Republican party today got where they were by looking decades ahead. I am asking you to look a mere 2 years ahead.

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