Progressive Democrat Issue 91: A State-by-State Rundown of the 2006 Election
Arizona: In the Senate race, the Republican holds 10 point lead. Consistently leads. Barring major event, I think this is certain to stay Republican. Two things that may modify that: the Repub incumbent has never really broken the "magic" 50% mark that is considered necessary to be "safe," and Arizona is the site of a couple of very hot House races. A high turnout for those House races could make the Senate race much closer than the polling suggests. Strategy: focus on the hot House races. AZ-5 and AZ-8 are pretty important for us to win. We have a real shot at AZ-8 and a more marginal shot at AZ-5. There are also Attorney General and Sec of State races that are important to win. Donations to AZ-5, AZ-8 and these two state-level races may be what is needed to have a good voter turnout for the Senate race. AZ-8 is particularly important and winnable because the Republican incumbent is a barely veiled neo-Nazi with open support from former KKK "Grand Wizard" David Duke.
California: There are two races here I want to highlight. There is one close House race. CA-11 is one of those races where Republican corruption is the dominant issue. The Republican incumbent took more money from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff than anyone else in Congress (over $500,000) and then blocked investigations of serious allegations of corruption. In a virtually unprecedented move, Pombo's primary opponent, Pete McCloskey, who comes from three generations of California Republican activists, has endorsed Pombo's Democratic opponent, Jerry McNerney, saying that it is better for the Democrats to capture the House temporarily in order to cleanse the Republican leadership. Jerry McNerney is strongly supported by the grassroots, even over here in NYC! This race is a tossup but an important one in the fight against corruption. The other race is for Sec. of State. California is a state that has already had election problems, primarily in San Diego, and is in desperate need of reform to prevent it from going the way of Ohio in 2004 and Georgia in 2002. As Secretary of State, Democrat Debra Bowen will ensure California properly certifies all of its voting equipment—particularly the new electronic voting machines. She will also establish an appropriate auditing mechanism to guarantee the results of every election are 100% accurate. This is one of the key Sec. of State races of the year. Join Democracy for America, California for Democracy, and EMILY’s List in supporting Debra Bowen for California’s Secretary of State.
Colorado: Colorado originally looked like it had several close House races. Ultimately I think it is coming down to one. But there is also a very important Sec. of State race, considered one of the more important ones of the year. Add to that an Attorney General's race and Colorado is still a key state this year. CO-7 is an open seat in a swing district. Kerry won this district in 2004, so it should be winable. Democrat Ed Perlmutter is a state senator. This one is considered a tossup by many Democrats, but Republicans seem to feel Dems are likely to win it. That is an unusual situation where the Repbs give Dems a better shot than Dems give themselves. If anything, the Sec of State race is even more important. As State Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Ken Gordon introduced and passed the bill requiring a paper trail and audits for all Colorado elections. His Republican opponent for the open seat will selectively enforce Colorado’s new regulations in order to make it difficult for groups to conduct voter registration drives without risking fines or criminal penalties. Gordon is running a progressive, grassroots campaign focusing on voter reform. Finally, Fern O'Brien is running for Attorney General and could use our help. Strategy: I probaby focus on the Sec. of State race...or BOTH Sec. of State and CO-7! Please donate.
Connecticut: The real Republican Senate Candidate polls almost nothing here. The quasi-Republican, Lieberman, maintains a pretty solid lead. From what I have seen, the grassroots did a wonderful job putting Lamont over in the primary, but have been failing to follow through sufficiently for the general election. Lieberman also maintains a solid fundraising advantage, which, I have been learning, will trump all but the best of grassroots efforts. If Lieberman wins, we lose nothing, but gain nothing either. A Lamont win would be great but I don't see the trend showing it as likely. As in Arizona, though, there are some very critical House races and Democratic turnout for those House races could affect the Senate race. CT-2 is one we were actually ahead in, but have been slipping. Fundraising is pretty close in this one, so we have a good shot of catching up again with some effort. CT-4 is the opposite: we were behind but are now ahead. Again, fundraising is pretty close so we have a shot here too. CT-5 is more of a longshot, but still worth focusing on. There are also Atty Gen and Sec of state races here. Strategy: Focus on the House, Atty Gen and Sec of State races. If Lamont were just a little closer it would be worth focusing on him. But as things are, we have more to lose or gain in the House races than in the Senate race. And turnout for the House can help Lamont. So give a little bit to win in CT.
Florida: I wasn't paying much attention to Florida this year. But in the end there are three close House races. FL-13 was the seat Katherine Harris, who put Bush into office, is vacating to run for Senate. Democrat Christine Jennings is an excellent candidate and has a good shot at winning. But it still leans Republican. FL-16 was as safe Republican seat. But then that Republican, Mark Foley, was found to have solicited sex with minors. He has resigned but that gives the very wealthy Democrat, Tim Mahoney, a real shot against his opponant who essentially has no money. Oddly a lot of Democrats are ignoring this one still...but the Republicans recognize that Dems are likely to pick it up with only a little effort. FL-22 is another close race that leans Republican...but could be turned by the recent Republican scandals throughout the nation, including Foley's sleaze in Florida. The Republican supports Bush's attempt to phase out Social Security in a district jam-packed with seniors. Democratic challenger, state senator Ron Klein, is well known in the district and is putting up a big fight. Republicans think they will win this one, Democrats see it as a toss up. I think the Florida races may be spoiled for the Democrats by Republican coat tails in the Governor's race...but then again, the Foley scandal may give us more of a shot than we are giving ourselves credit for! Strategy: All three are worth fighting for!
Georgia: We have two House seats to defend here. Both GA-12 and GA-14 are being targeted by Republicans pretty heavily. My view though is that both lean Democrat and the Republicans just don't have the resources this year to put up a good offense. They are way too busy defending their own seats. I think we will be okay in these districts.
Illinois: There are two close House races in IL. IL-6 pits a Republican neophyte against a Fighting Dem. Democrat Maj. Tammy Duckworth lost both legs when the army helicopter she was flying was shot down in Iraq. She was fitted with protheses and is waging a vigorous campaign against the war. Her opponent is a personal injury lawyer. Clearly Republicans prefer a veteran over a personal injury lawyer, right? We will see if this helps Duckworth Democrats call this a tossup, Republicans think it leans Republican but it really is very winable for us. I think of all the tossup/lean Repub races in the nation, this one is our best shot. Please help Major Tammy Duckworth! The other close race, IL-8, is one we need to defend. However, I really don't think Republicans have the resources to win it. I think it is safely Dem this year.
Indiana: Indiana originally only had two close House races, both of which even Republicans think we have a shot at. But now, thanks to the efforts of MoveOn.org in particular, there is a THIRD Indiana House race we have a shot at! And even the Republicans think so. Republican prediction sites think Indiana is the one state where Democrats will pick up THREE seats. IN-2 was a safe Republican seat. But after MoveOn.org ran some damning ads in this district targeting the Republican, it has become competitive. Not only that, but apparantly it now looks like we might win it. Democrats see this as a tossup. Republicans think we may win it. IN-8 is one of our must win districts because the Republican is one of the most extremist Republicans in Congress. AND he is one of the Katrina 11 who voted against aid to Katrina victims but supports no-bid contracts for Halliburton. He was also arrested for trying to take a loaded 9-mm pistol onto an airplane in but plea-bargained his way out of jail. The Democrat, Brad Ellsworth is a popular law enforcement officer. Democrats see this as a tossup. Republicans think we may win it. IN-9 pits another extremist Republican against an excellent Democrat. Protecting Social Security and developing energy independence are two of Democrat Baron Hill’s key issues for winning this race. All three races are seen as tossups by Dems and lean Dem by Republicans. I think they are tossups and we need to focus on all three if we want to win Congress this year. There was one House race that looked like Democrats might lose a seat, but now IN-7 is seen as safe. But wait...there is more! Indiana is a state where electronic voting may already be determining elections and leading to widespread fraud or at least "mistakes." We really need to win the Sec. of State position in this state. In addition to focusing on the above mentioned House races, please help Democrat Joe Pearson win as Sec. of State.
Iowa: Iowa is a state I focused on early, and I still see it as a key state. But not as blatantly as Indiana and Pennsylvania. There are several scattered races that are very important not just for Democrats, but for Progressives as well. IA-1 is one of the closest tossups of the year and one of our best pick up chances. Republicans really think we will win it, but I think it is a tossup we have to work for. IA-3 is our #1 seat to defend in the House...but as with all our other defense situations other than NJ Senate, I don't think the Republicans have the resources to muster to win. I think IA-3 is safe Dem. Republicans still think they can win it because the Democrat, a Vietnam Vet, had cancer that he is recovering from. Seems like a nasty reason to target a seat! At one time I thought we might have a shot at IA-2 and IA-5. They are definitely long shots. But there are two more races. Iowa state house district 84 has an excellent young progressive running, Elesha Gayman. She is one of Democracy for America's top choices this year and I have been supporting her from early on. She could be a rising star among progressives and I think this is one local race that deserves our attention. Finally, in my focus on Sec. of State positions, Iowa also has an important Sec. of State race. Please make sure Mike Mauro is the next Sec. of State of Iowa, not a Republican who would be willing to lie and cheat and steal to get fellow Republicans elected. Strategy: Unlike other states, these races don't really feed off eachother. IA-1, Elesha Gayman for HD-84 and Mike Mauro for Sec. of State each deserve your support!
Kentucky: There are two close House races, KY-3 and KY-4. KY-2 is a longshot I once thought might be worth focusing on. I don't think it is materializing. Normally I would think we had no shot at any of these seats. But, Bush's popularity has dropped so far and the Republican Governor of Kentucky has been indicted on ethics charges, the first sitting governor to be indicted in modern times. The Kentucky Republican party is among the most corrupt in the nation, rivaled perhaps only by those in Missouri and Ohio. So the corruption issue could win at least KY-4 for us. If I were to rank them, I'd say we have the best shot at KY-4, then KY-3, and then KY-2 which has not become as competitive as I had wanted. There is also a good DFA-endorsed progressive for House district 48, Amy Shir, who deserves our support. Let's make Kentucky a real battleground this year.
Louisiana: LA-3 is one Democratic seat that Republicans are pushing hard to take. Once again, I am thinking we don't need to defend much this year because the Republicans don't have the resources. However, this district was hit hard by Katrina and the chaos that still affects the area will affect voter turnout. The Republicans will try once again to turn tragedy to their advantage. I have this gut feeling we need to help Democrat Charlie Melancon hold back some real nasty Republican suppression of voters.
Minnesota: This should be an easy Senate race to win. The Dem is about 10 points ahead and the Republican has never really come very close. There is one very hot, tossup House race pitting Republican Michelle Bachmann, who opposes all recognition for gay relationships, supports creathttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifionism being taught in the public schools, opposes the minimum wage, and does not want to rule out a nuclear attack on Iran, against Democrat Patty Wetterling, who has been an advocate for stopping child abuse and abduction after her (still missing) son was abducted in 1989. She opposes the war in Iraq and wants to bring the troops home now. In this case it is really ALL about the House race and also the Sec. of State race where we need to get Mark Ritchie elected. Strategy: focus on Wetterling and Ritchie, two very key races.
Missouri: Probably the MOST IMPORTANT and HOTTEST Senate race this year. Comlete tossup with the horriible Republican no-Talent against Democrat Claire McCaskill. A MUST WIN MUST WIN MUST WIN RACE!!!! Polls consistently show this race within the margin of error. There are also no less than FOUR Democracy for America endorsed state level candidates who deserve our support. If we can delvier it for these four DFA candidates and for McCaskill, it will be a significant victory in this state that bridges the Midwest and the South. If you can only give to efforts in one state, make it Missouri! Strategy: Push hard for McCaskill and, if possible, help strengthen the local turnout by donating to the local DFA-endorsed races. In Missouri the Senate is the most important race and we hope the rest ride on McCaskill's coat tails.
Montana: This one looks good, but is not a slam dunk. This pits the terrible Conrad Burns (corrupt and eager to test pesticides on humans...I kid you not!) against populist superstar and organic farmer Jon Tester. Tester polls consistently ahead, but not comfortably enough for us to be complacent...generally only about 5% ahead, barely outside the margin of error. IF we win this one it will be one of the biggest grassroots/netroots victories to date. Tester beat back a conservative Democrat in the primaries and is now poised to defeat one of the worst Republicans in the Senate today. Help him along if you can. Strategy: Push hard as hell for Tester!
New Hampshire: NH-2 is seen as a tossup by Democrats but off the radar for Republicans. Polls do show it close and the Democratic challenger, Paul Hodes, is matching the Repubican incumbent in fundraising. Normally, because I am a pessimist, I pay attention to the Republican views of these races...but in this case I think we have a real shot at winning. Help Paul Hodes in this sleeper race!
New Jersey: This one is our most important defense of the year. Democrat Menendez has polled right around the margin of error either ahead or behind his opponent. That is disappointing in supposedly "blue" New Jersey. Make no mistake...this is the one Senate seat we could lose, largely blownig our shot at retaking the Senate with a majority (as opposed to having it be 50-50 with Dick Cheney delivering the deciding vote). There is also one close and one increasingly close House race. NJ-7 pits the excessively pro-war republican against the Democracy for America endorsed and very excellent Linda Stender. NJ-5 looked safe Republican. But Democrat Paul Aronsohn is catching up against the Republican incumbent who is one of the disgusting "Katrina 11" who voted against aid to Katrina victems but supported no-bid contracts for Halliburton. Democratic turnout in NJ-5 could bring a Menendez win, so in some ways NJ-5 is a key district. Strategy: even if they are long shots, pushing hard in NJ-5 and NJ-7 will deliver more votes for Menendez in districts where Republicans are slightly favored, and could just win us another House seat. We are unlikely to win both, but winning one would help solidify our House gains. Please help put up a tough fight in NJ-5 and NJ-7 and deliver the vote for Menendez.
New Mexico: NM-1 is possibly the hottest race in the nation. This one is one of the most important for the anti-War movement because, according to Salon.com, the Iraq war is the most important issue in this district. The Republican is one of those who is trying to pass herself off as an independent. The Democrat, New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, is considered one of the rising stars of the Democratic party and, assuming she wins, one of the Democrats to watch in coming years. Many put this as the top House race in the country. We HAVE to win it.
New York: I have been saying from very early on that New York will be a major battle ground. Seemed few people saw these races as competitive, but now my predictions are starting to come to pass. In NY-20, corruption and the Iraq war are dragging down the incumbent Republican. Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand is putting up a huge fight. Democrats see this as only lean Republican. Republicans see it as off their radar, an easy win. But insider info indicates Sweeny, who has been photographed publically drunk and has lots of scandals dogging him, is slipping and Gillibrand is gaining momentum. NY-24 is seen by both Dems and Republicans as hard fought. It is seen as a tossup. NY-26 is one of those cases where it seems more off the radar for Dems but Republicans think we have a shot at picking it up. I think we do have a shot, particularly since the incumbent, Republican Reynolds, was involved in the cover up of Foley's sexual predator crimes. That could hurt him badly! NY-29 is another one that is somewhat off Dem radars but Republicans are worried about Dems picking up. Since the Democratic Candidate, Eric Massa, though a bit too conservative for my taste, is a fighting Dem with some good netroots support. Finally there is NY-13 and NY-19...both are sleepers with little polling. I think these will be much closer than people think and deserve much attention. ALL NY state races are hot ones this year because Eliot Spitzer's run for Governor has a HUGE potential for coat tails. There are also many very hot State Senate races giving us a shot at picking up the State Senate. All told, this makes NY State one of the biggest, but most underappreciated battle ground of the year. Help us win big out here in New York!
North Carolina: There is one hot House race here. NC-11 pits a CAFTA supporting Republican (unpopular in this blue collar district) against a Democrat who is a former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler (more popular in a blue collar district). Probably a tossup.
Ohio: Ohio, not surprisingly, is one of our biggest battle grounds this year, with CRITICAL races at ALL LEVELS. For Senate, Democrat Brown has been consistently ahead, but the race has closed up and is within the margin of error. We HAVE to win Ohio's Senate seat. Next to the Missouri Senate race, this is the most critical and hard fought Senate race in the nation. The Republicans will do all they can, legal or illegal, to win. Which is why I put second the races for Sec of State (formerly held by Blackwell who stole Ohio for Bush in 2004) and Attorney General races. These are SO IMPORTANT because of the corruption and electoral fraud in Ohio. We will never have a fair election or fair government in Ohio unless we win these two races. PLEASE help out Jennifer Brunner for Sec of State and Mark Dann for Attorney General. If anything, these two races have more long term implications even that the Senate race! Don't underestimate their importance. Finally, we have no fewer than THREE close House races. OH-6 leans Democrat, but is one of the very few Democratic House seats we have to defend this year from a very determined Republican attack. OH-15 leans Republican, but Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy is putting up a huge fight and the Republican is being dragged down by the corruption within the Ohio Republican Party. I think OH-15 is one of the Republican-leaning races we have the best shot at turning Democratic. Finally, we have the surprise race of the year in Ohio. Once thought to be a safe Republican seat, corruption took down Bob Ney, one of the very first targets of my "Target the Corrupt Republican" campaign. On Aug. 7, 2006, Bob Ney withdrew from the race for OH-18 due to the influence-peddling scandals surrounding him. He announced his support for Joy Padgett as the Republican candidate, who was then duly nominated. Her calls for fiscal responsibility, which is popular in Ohio, will no doubt be contrasted with her own filing for personal bankruptcy June 15, 2006, in which she and her husband had $1.1 million in debts, including a loan from the Small Business Administration. Opposite her is Zach Space, once tilting at windmills running against Ney, now having a very real chance at winning. he's a good guy who would be great in Congress. This race is a tossup. Strategy: hard to say when there are so many important races! Pick your favorite: a.) focus on the Senate and hope for coat tails, b.) focus on the three close House races hoping to win one or more of those seats AND deliver more votes for Brown for Senate in the process, or c.) focus on the Sec. of State and Attorney General positions because, win or lose the other races this year, THESE races will determine the future of elections in Ohio and whether Republican corruption is fought. I favor the third strategy! Any way you slice it, Ohio is a BIG one this year. Please, please, please help out!
Pennsylvania: Next to Missouri and Ohio, this just may be the third most important state of the year, though it has many rivals for that slot. In the Senate race Casey maintains a fairly comfortable lead of around 10 points. I worry though because Santorum is such a Republican fixture I wonder what tricks the very tricky Republican party will pull in November. Still, this is the one almost certain Senate pick up of the year, so I feel comfortable, more or less, focusing on the House races. There are no fewer than FOUR close House races in PA, and if Casey has coat tails, we just might win three or four of them. Even Republicans are thinking Dems will pick up at least two seats in PA this year. PA-6 is one of the most important ones for the grassroots, pitting Lois Murphy against the Republican in a rematch of their very close 2004 race. In 2004 the Republican barely won. This year, Bush's low ratings and Republican corruption make the race lean Democrat. In fact, this is one of those races where the Republican is trying to pretend to be an independent. For once the Democrat has about the same amount of money as the Republican, so I think we will win this one. But it is hard-fought and the grassroots has to work extra hard for Murphy. If we lose this one, we probably will be losing big this year. PA-7 a tossup. What should have been a shoo-in 10-term incumbent Republican cake walk has turned into a tossup because the Democrat, Joe Sestack, is a 3-star general who is actually out raising the Republican. The incumbent, not surprisingly, made some nasty attacks on Sestack, but this backfired because it was seen as disrespectful to the military in the district. This is a prime pick up shot! PA-8 is an interesting one pitting two Irishmen with opposing views on almost every issue. Patrick Murphy, the Democrat, is an Iraq war vet who has turned against the war, so this is a critical one for the anti-war movement to win. Leans Republican, but could easily be another pickup for Dems. PA-10 is another surprise where Republicans are messing up what should be a safe seat. The Republican incumbent had a very public, very nasty scandal involving a mistress who he violently attacked, a 911 call and a large lawsuit. This does not play well in the district. Enter the Democrat: Chris Carney was a Lieutenant Commander in the United States Naval Reserve, served multiple tours overseas and was activated for operations Enduring Freedom and Noble Eagle and he has served as Senior Terrorism and Intelligence Advisor at the Pentagon. This pits another Fighting Dem hero against a sleazy Republican. All in all, this really gives us a shot at FOUR House seats. That alone would be one quarter of the seats we need to take Congress. That is nothing to sneeze at and I highly recommend these PA House races for your consideration when you consider where to donate time and money.
Rhode Island: This often overlooked state has one of the closest Senate races of the year and, next to PA, our most likely Senate pickup of the year. The Democratic challenger, Sheldon Whitehouse (hmmm...could he not have ambitions with a name like that!) was way behind the incumbent Republican at first. Mid-July their trajectories crossed and by now the Democrat is ahead around 5 points, just outside of the margin of error. Looking good, but not guaranteed. Not too much else going on in RI, but if we have any shot at winning the Senate, we have to win this one.
Tennessee: The biggest surprise of this year may in the end be how easily Democrats win the TN Senate race. Don't get me wrong! This is a tossup. But Democrat Harold Ford, jr., came up from behind to now be pulling ahead of the Republican incumbent. It is still far from a certain win. But Ford's campaign has been running fairly smoothy and has some very clear momentum. Unlike many races where someone came up from behind, Ford's gain seems to be more rapid than his opponent's decline, indicating he is picking up swing voters, not Republicans who might very likely switch back at the last minute out of party loyalty. Ford's rise has been steady since August. Unless something changes, this may join PA and RI as one of the most likely Dem Senate pickups of the year. As it is, though, it remains within the margin of error and could use some help.
Texas: There are three hot House races in Texas. TX-17 is one where we are defending. Like most of the defense seats this year I think the Republicans just won't be able to muster the resources to win it. The one caveat that may make it worth some attention is that the Republican challenger is one of the ONLY Iraq war vets running as a Republican. That means there is a great deal of incentive for the Republicans to win this one. My gut reaction is this one needs some real defense. TX-22 is our real prize this year. This was the seat that Tom DeLay vacated when he was indicted for corruption. Once thought a "safe Republican" seat, this now leans Democrat. If we win this one it will be a great moral victory over corruption. Democrat Nick Lampson is a good candidate and has an excellent shot at winning. In fact, Tom DeLay is still on the ballot and the real Repub candidate is a write-in! TX-23 is more of a long shot, but still worth fighting for. This is one of the districts that was gerrymandered by Tom DeLay. Democrat Ciro Rodriguez is endorsed by Democracy for America and a is a great grassroots candidate.
Virginia: This Senate race may be our toughest must-win race of the year. We are behind, but if we want to win back the Senate, we almost HAVE to win it. The good news is that the Democrat, Jim Webb, started out WAY WAY behind and tied up by September. The bad news is after September the Republican started regaining ground. We really need to win this: the Republican is a racist with white supremicist connections. To let him win after that was revealed would be a travisty. For that reason I place this as one of our most critical races of the year, similar to AZ-8 House race in its importance in fighting racism in America. In addition there is one close House race. VA-2 probably depends on what happens in the Senate. Republicans see this as leaning Republican, Democrats see it as a tossup. The Democrat, Phil Kellam, is well known in the district, so can put up a good challenge. Last year Virginia wound up being one of the states I considered most important and most worth focusing on. This year it may not be the very top of the list, but it is important! Strategy: I think BOTH these races need attention. Please help win these two races.
Washington State: This looked like it was going to be close. But I think it will wind up being an easy win by the Democratic incumbent. Maria Cantwell now seems to be leading just under the safe "10-point" margin. The Republicans could pull a fast one here, but I think they are too busy defending PA and RI and TN and MT... But there is a close House race. WA-8 is a tossup, pitting Democrat Darcy Burner against a weak Republican incumbent. Burner is outraising her opponent so she has a good shot, but the race is a tossup. Strategy: Help out Burner and it will help pick up a House seat AND solidify a Senate seat. So, help out Burner!
West Virginia has one close House race we might lose. This is one case, however, I can't really muster a strong fight for the Dem incumbent. In WV-1 we have one of the rare cases these days when corruption is affecting the Dem rather than the Republican. Since I make a huge point of fighting Republican corruption, I have to say this is a seat I can't endorse the Democrat. Not that I can endorse the Republican! But given the probably corruption of the Dem, I am willing to let him fight his own battle.
California: There are two races here I want to highlight. There is one close House race. CA-11 is one of those races where Republican corruption is the dominant issue. The Republican incumbent took more money from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff than anyone else in Congress (over $500,000) and then blocked investigations of serious allegations of corruption. In a virtually unprecedented move, Pombo's primary opponent, Pete McCloskey, who comes from three generations of California Republican activists, has endorsed Pombo's Democratic opponent, Jerry McNerney, saying that it is better for the Democrats to capture the House temporarily in order to cleanse the Republican leadership. Jerry McNerney is strongly supported by the grassroots, even over here in NYC! This race is a tossup but an important one in the fight against corruption. The other race is for Sec. of State. California is a state that has already had election problems, primarily in San Diego, and is in desperate need of reform to prevent it from going the way of Ohio in 2004 and Georgia in 2002. As Secretary of State, Democrat Debra Bowen will ensure California properly certifies all of its voting equipment—particularly the new electronic voting machines. She will also establish an appropriate auditing mechanism to guarantee the results of every election are 100% accurate. This is one of the key Sec. of State races of the year. Join Democracy for America, California for Democracy, and EMILY’s List in supporting Debra Bowen for California’s Secretary of State.
Colorado: Colorado originally looked like it had several close House races. Ultimately I think it is coming down to one. But there is also a very important Sec. of State race, considered one of the more important ones of the year. Add to that an Attorney General's race and Colorado is still a key state this year. CO-7 is an open seat in a swing district. Kerry won this district in 2004, so it should be winable. Democrat Ed Perlmutter is a state senator. This one is considered a tossup by many Democrats, but Republicans seem to feel Dems are likely to win it. That is an unusual situation where the Repbs give Dems a better shot than Dems give themselves. If anything, the Sec of State race is even more important. As State Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Ken Gordon introduced and passed the bill requiring a paper trail and audits for all Colorado elections. His Republican opponent for the open seat will selectively enforce Colorado’s new regulations in order to make it difficult for groups to conduct voter registration drives without risking fines or criminal penalties. Gordon is running a progressive, grassroots campaign focusing on voter reform. Finally, Fern O'Brien is running for Attorney General and could use our help. Strategy: I probaby focus on the Sec. of State race...or BOTH Sec. of State and CO-7! Please donate.
Connecticut: The real Republican Senate Candidate polls almost nothing here. The quasi-Republican, Lieberman, maintains a pretty solid lead. From what I have seen, the grassroots did a wonderful job putting Lamont over in the primary, but have been failing to follow through sufficiently for the general election. Lieberman also maintains a solid fundraising advantage, which, I have been learning, will trump all but the best of grassroots efforts. If Lieberman wins, we lose nothing, but gain nothing either. A Lamont win would be great but I don't see the trend showing it as likely. As in Arizona, though, there are some very critical House races and Democratic turnout for those House races could affect the Senate race. CT-2 is one we were actually ahead in, but have been slipping. Fundraising is pretty close in this one, so we have a good shot of catching up again with some effort. CT-4 is the opposite: we were behind but are now ahead. Again, fundraising is pretty close so we have a shot here too. CT-5 is more of a longshot, but still worth focusing on. There are also Atty Gen and Sec of state races here. Strategy: Focus on the House, Atty Gen and Sec of State races. If Lamont were just a little closer it would be worth focusing on him. But as things are, we have more to lose or gain in the House races than in the Senate race. And turnout for the House can help Lamont. So give a little bit to win in CT.
Florida: I wasn't paying much attention to Florida this year. But in the end there are three close House races. FL-13 was the seat Katherine Harris, who put Bush into office, is vacating to run for Senate. Democrat Christine Jennings is an excellent candidate and has a good shot at winning. But it still leans Republican. FL-16 was as safe Republican seat. But then that Republican, Mark Foley, was found to have solicited sex with minors. He has resigned but that gives the very wealthy Democrat, Tim Mahoney, a real shot against his opponant who essentially has no money. Oddly a lot of Democrats are ignoring this one still...but the Republicans recognize that Dems are likely to pick it up with only a little effort. FL-22 is another close race that leans Republican...but could be turned by the recent Republican scandals throughout the nation, including Foley's sleaze in Florida. The Republican supports Bush's attempt to phase out Social Security in a district jam-packed with seniors. Democratic challenger, state senator Ron Klein, is well known in the district and is putting up a big fight. Republicans think they will win this one, Democrats see it as a toss up. I think the Florida races may be spoiled for the Democrats by Republican coat tails in the Governor's race...but then again, the Foley scandal may give us more of a shot than we are giving ourselves credit for! Strategy: All three are worth fighting for!
Georgia: We have two House seats to defend here. Both GA-12 and GA-14 are being targeted by Republicans pretty heavily. My view though is that both lean Democrat and the Republicans just don't have the resources this year to put up a good offense. They are way too busy defending their own seats. I think we will be okay in these districts.
Illinois: There are two close House races in IL. IL-6 pits a Republican neophyte against a Fighting Dem. Democrat Maj. Tammy Duckworth lost both legs when the army helicopter she was flying was shot down in Iraq. She was fitted with protheses and is waging a vigorous campaign against the war. Her opponent is a personal injury lawyer. Clearly Republicans prefer a veteran over a personal injury lawyer, right? We will see if this helps Duckworth Democrats call this a tossup, Republicans think it leans Republican but it really is very winable for us. I think of all the tossup/lean Repub races in the nation, this one is our best shot. Please help Major Tammy Duckworth! The other close race, IL-8, is one we need to defend. However, I really don't think Republicans have the resources to win it. I think it is safely Dem this year.
Indiana: Indiana originally only had two close House races, both of which even Republicans think we have a shot at. But now, thanks to the efforts of MoveOn.org in particular, there is a THIRD Indiana House race we have a shot at! And even the Republicans think so. Republican prediction sites think Indiana is the one state where Democrats will pick up THREE seats. IN-2 was a safe Republican seat. But after MoveOn.org ran some damning ads in this district targeting the Republican, it has become competitive. Not only that, but apparantly it now looks like we might win it. Democrats see this as a tossup. Republicans think we may win it. IN-8 is one of our must win districts because the Republican is one of the most extremist Republicans in Congress. AND he is one of the Katrina 11 who voted against aid to Katrina victims but supports no-bid contracts for Halliburton. He was also arrested for trying to take a loaded 9-mm pistol onto an airplane in but plea-bargained his way out of jail. The Democrat, Brad Ellsworth is a popular law enforcement officer. Democrats see this as a tossup. Republicans think we may win it. IN-9 pits another extremist Republican against an excellent Democrat. Protecting Social Security and developing energy independence are two of Democrat Baron Hill’s key issues for winning this race. All three races are seen as tossups by Dems and lean Dem by Republicans. I think they are tossups and we need to focus on all three if we want to win Congress this year. There was one House race that looked like Democrats might lose a seat, but now IN-7 is seen as safe. But wait...there is more! Indiana is a state where electronic voting may already be determining elections and leading to widespread fraud or at least "mistakes." We really need to win the Sec. of State position in this state. In addition to focusing on the above mentioned House races, please help Democrat Joe Pearson win as Sec. of State.
Iowa: Iowa is a state I focused on early, and I still see it as a key state. But not as blatantly as Indiana and Pennsylvania. There are several scattered races that are very important not just for Democrats, but for Progressives as well. IA-1 is one of the closest tossups of the year and one of our best pick up chances. Republicans really think we will win it, but I think it is a tossup we have to work for. IA-3 is our #1 seat to defend in the House...but as with all our other defense situations other than NJ Senate, I don't think the Republicans have the resources to muster to win. I think IA-3 is safe Dem. Republicans still think they can win it because the Democrat, a Vietnam Vet, had cancer that he is recovering from. Seems like a nasty reason to target a seat! At one time I thought we might have a shot at IA-2 and IA-5. They are definitely long shots. But there are two more races. Iowa state house district 84 has an excellent young progressive running, Elesha Gayman. She is one of Democracy for America's top choices this year and I have been supporting her from early on. She could be a rising star among progressives and I think this is one local race that deserves our attention. Finally, in my focus on Sec. of State positions, Iowa also has an important Sec. of State race. Please make sure Mike Mauro is the next Sec. of State of Iowa, not a Republican who would be willing to lie and cheat and steal to get fellow Republicans elected. Strategy: Unlike other states, these races don't really feed off eachother. IA-1, Elesha Gayman for HD-84 and Mike Mauro for Sec. of State each deserve your support!
Kentucky: There are two close House races, KY-3 and KY-4. KY-2 is a longshot I once thought might be worth focusing on. I don't think it is materializing. Normally I would think we had no shot at any of these seats. But, Bush's popularity has dropped so far and the Republican Governor of Kentucky has been indicted on ethics charges, the first sitting governor to be indicted in modern times. The Kentucky Republican party is among the most corrupt in the nation, rivaled perhaps only by those in Missouri and Ohio. So the corruption issue could win at least KY-4 for us. If I were to rank them, I'd say we have the best shot at KY-4, then KY-3, and then KY-2 which has not become as competitive as I had wanted. There is also a good DFA-endorsed progressive for House district 48, Amy Shir, who deserves our support. Let's make Kentucky a real battleground this year.
Louisiana: LA-3 is one Democratic seat that Republicans are pushing hard to take. Once again, I am thinking we don't need to defend much this year because the Republicans don't have the resources. However, this district was hit hard by Katrina and the chaos that still affects the area will affect voter turnout. The Republicans will try once again to turn tragedy to their advantage. I have this gut feeling we need to help Democrat Charlie Melancon hold back some real nasty Republican suppression of voters.
Minnesota: This should be an easy Senate race to win. The Dem is about 10 points ahead and the Republican has never really come very close. There is one very hot, tossup House race pitting Republican Michelle Bachmann, who opposes all recognition for gay relationships, supports creathttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifionism being taught in the public schools, opposes the minimum wage, and does not want to rule out a nuclear attack on Iran, against Democrat Patty Wetterling, who has been an advocate for stopping child abuse and abduction after her (still missing) son was abducted in 1989. She opposes the war in Iraq and wants to bring the troops home now. In this case it is really ALL about the House race and also the Sec. of State race where we need to get Mark Ritchie elected. Strategy: focus on Wetterling and Ritchie, two very key races.
Missouri: Probably the MOST IMPORTANT and HOTTEST Senate race this year. Comlete tossup with the horriible Republican no-Talent against Democrat Claire McCaskill. A MUST WIN MUST WIN MUST WIN RACE!!!! Polls consistently show this race within the margin of error. There are also no less than FOUR Democracy for America endorsed state level candidates who deserve our support. If we can delvier it for these four DFA candidates and for McCaskill, it will be a significant victory in this state that bridges the Midwest and the South. If you can only give to efforts in one state, make it Missouri! Strategy: Push hard for McCaskill and, if possible, help strengthen the local turnout by donating to the local DFA-endorsed races. In Missouri the Senate is the most important race and we hope the rest ride on McCaskill's coat tails.
Montana: This one looks good, but is not a slam dunk. This pits the terrible Conrad Burns (corrupt and eager to test pesticides on humans...I kid you not!) against populist superstar and organic farmer Jon Tester. Tester polls consistently ahead, but not comfortably enough for us to be complacent...generally only about 5% ahead, barely outside the margin of error. IF we win this one it will be one of the biggest grassroots/netroots victories to date. Tester beat back a conservative Democrat in the primaries and is now poised to defeat one of the worst Republicans in the Senate today. Help him along if you can. Strategy: Push hard as hell for Tester!
New Hampshire: NH-2 is seen as a tossup by Democrats but off the radar for Republicans. Polls do show it close and the Democratic challenger, Paul Hodes, is matching the Repubican incumbent in fundraising. Normally, because I am a pessimist, I pay attention to the Republican views of these races...but in this case I think we have a real shot at winning. Help Paul Hodes in this sleeper race!
New Jersey: This one is our most important defense of the year. Democrat Menendez has polled right around the margin of error either ahead or behind his opponent. That is disappointing in supposedly "blue" New Jersey. Make no mistake...this is the one Senate seat we could lose, largely blownig our shot at retaking the Senate with a majority (as opposed to having it be 50-50 with Dick Cheney delivering the deciding vote). There is also one close and one increasingly close House race. NJ-7 pits the excessively pro-war republican against the Democracy for America endorsed and very excellent Linda Stender. NJ-5 looked safe Republican. But Democrat Paul Aronsohn is catching up against the Republican incumbent who is one of the disgusting "Katrina 11" who voted against aid to Katrina victems but supported no-bid contracts for Halliburton. Democratic turnout in NJ-5 could bring a Menendez win, so in some ways NJ-5 is a key district. Strategy: even if they are long shots, pushing hard in NJ-5 and NJ-7 will deliver more votes for Menendez in districts where Republicans are slightly favored, and could just win us another House seat. We are unlikely to win both, but winning one would help solidify our House gains. Please help put up a tough fight in NJ-5 and NJ-7 and deliver the vote for Menendez.
New Mexico: NM-1 is possibly the hottest race in the nation. This one is one of the most important for the anti-War movement because, according to Salon.com, the Iraq war is the most important issue in this district. The Republican is one of those who is trying to pass herself off as an independent. The Democrat, New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, is considered one of the rising stars of the Democratic party and, assuming she wins, one of the Democrats to watch in coming years. Many put this as the top House race in the country. We HAVE to win it.
New York: I have been saying from very early on that New York will be a major battle ground. Seemed few people saw these races as competitive, but now my predictions are starting to come to pass. In NY-20, corruption and the Iraq war are dragging down the incumbent Republican. Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand is putting up a huge fight. Democrats see this as only lean Republican. Republicans see it as off their radar, an easy win. But insider info indicates Sweeny, who has been photographed publically drunk and has lots of scandals dogging him, is slipping and Gillibrand is gaining momentum. NY-24 is seen by both Dems and Republicans as hard fought. It is seen as a tossup. NY-26 is one of those cases where it seems more off the radar for Dems but Republicans think we have a shot at picking it up. I think we do have a shot, particularly since the incumbent, Republican Reynolds, was involved in the cover up of Foley's sexual predator crimes. That could hurt him badly! NY-29 is another one that is somewhat off Dem radars but Republicans are worried about Dems picking up. Since the Democratic Candidate, Eric Massa, though a bit too conservative for my taste, is a fighting Dem with some good netroots support. Finally there is NY-13 and NY-19...both are sleepers with little polling. I think these will be much closer than people think and deserve much attention. ALL NY state races are hot ones this year because Eliot Spitzer's run for Governor has a HUGE potential for coat tails. There are also many very hot State Senate races giving us a shot at picking up the State Senate. All told, this makes NY State one of the biggest, but most underappreciated battle ground of the year. Help us win big out here in New York!
North Carolina: There is one hot House race here. NC-11 pits a CAFTA supporting Republican (unpopular in this blue collar district) against a Democrat who is a former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler (more popular in a blue collar district). Probably a tossup.
Ohio: Ohio, not surprisingly, is one of our biggest battle grounds this year, with CRITICAL races at ALL LEVELS. For Senate, Democrat Brown has been consistently ahead, but the race has closed up and is within the margin of error. We HAVE to win Ohio's Senate seat. Next to the Missouri Senate race, this is the most critical and hard fought Senate race in the nation. The Republicans will do all they can, legal or illegal, to win. Which is why I put second the races for Sec of State (formerly held by Blackwell who stole Ohio for Bush in 2004) and Attorney General races. These are SO IMPORTANT because of the corruption and electoral fraud in Ohio. We will never have a fair election or fair government in Ohio unless we win these two races. PLEASE help out Jennifer Brunner for Sec of State and Mark Dann for Attorney General. If anything, these two races have more long term implications even that the Senate race! Don't underestimate their importance. Finally, we have no fewer than THREE close House races. OH-6 leans Democrat, but is one of the very few Democratic House seats we have to defend this year from a very determined Republican attack. OH-15 leans Republican, but Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy is putting up a huge fight and the Republican is being dragged down by the corruption within the Ohio Republican Party. I think OH-15 is one of the Republican-leaning races we have the best shot at turning Democratic. Finally, we have the surprise race of the year in Ohio. Once thought to be a safe Republican seat, corruption took down Bob Ney, one of the very first targets of my "Target the Corrupt Republican" campaign. On Aug. 7, 2006, Bob Ney withdrew from the race for OH-18 due to the influence-peddling scandals surrounding him. He announced his support for Joy Padgett as the Republican candidate, who was then duly nominated. Her calls for fiscal responsibility, which is popular in Ohio, will no doubt be contrasted with her own filing for personal bankruptcy June 15, 2006, in which she and her husband had $1.1 million in debts, including a loan from the Small Business Administration. Opposite her is Zach Space, once tilting at windmills running against Ney, now having a very real chance at winning. he's a good guy who would be great in Congress. This race is a tossup. Strategy: hard to say when there are so many important races! Pick your favorite: a.) focus on the Senate and hope for coat tails, b.) focus on the three close House races hoping to win one or more of those seats AND deliver more votes for Brown for Senate in the process, or c.) focus on the Sec. of State and Attorney General positions because, win or lose the other races this year, THESE races will determine the future of elections in Ohio and whether Republican corruption is fought. I favor the third strategy! Any way you slice it, Ohio is a BIG one this year. Please, please, please help out!
Pennsylvania: Next to Missouri and Ohio, this just may be the third most important state of the year, though it has many rivals for that slot. In the Senate race Casey maintains a fairly comfortable lead of around 10 points. I worry though because Santorum is such a Republican fixture I wonder what tricks the very tricky Republican party will pull in November. Still, this is the one almost certain Senate pick up of the year, so I feel comfortable, more or less, focusing on the House races. There are no fewer than FOUR close House races in PA, and if Casey has coat tails, we just might win three or four of them. Even Republicans are thinking Dems will pick up at least two seats in PA this year. PA-6 is one of the most important ones for the grassroots, pitting Lois Murphy against the Republican in a rematch of their very close 2004 race. In 2004 the Republican barely won. This year, Bush's low ratings and Republican corruption make the race lean Democrat. In fact, this is one of those races where the Republican is trying to pretend to be an independent. For once the Democrat has about the same amount of money as the Republican, so I think we will win this one. But it is hard-fought and the grassroots has to work extra hard for Murphy. If we lose this one, we probably will be losing big this year. PA-7 a tossup. What should have been a shoo-in 10-term incumbent Republican cake walk has turned into a tossup because the Democrat, Joe Sestack, is a 3-star general who is actually out raising the Republican. The incumbent, not surprisingly, made some nasty attacks on Sestack, but this backfired because it was seen as disrespectful to the military in the district. This is a prime pick up shot! PA-8 is an interesting one pitting two Irishmen with opposing views on almost every issue. Patrick Murphy, the Democrat, is an Iraq war vet who has turned against the war, so this is a critical one for the anti-war movement to win. Leans Republican, but could easily be another pickup for Dems. PA-10 is another surprise where Republicans are messing up what should be a safe seat. The Republican incumbent had a very public, very nasty scandal involving a mistress who he violently attacked, a 911 call and a large lawsuit. This does not play well in the district. Enter the Democrat: Chris Carney was a Lieutenant Commander in the United States Naval Reserve, served multiple tours overseas and was activated for operations Enduring Freedom and Noble Eagle and he has served as Senior Terrorism and Intelligence Advisor at the Pentagon. This pits another Fighting Dem hero against a sleazy Republican. All in all, this really gives us a shot at FOUR House seats. That alone would be one quarter of the seats we need to take Congress. That is nothing to sneeze at and I highly recommend these PA House races for your consideration when you consider where to donate time and money.
Rhode Island: This often overlooked state has one of the closest Senate races of the year and, next to PA, our most likely Senate pickup of the year. The Democratic challenger, Sheldon Whitehouse (hmmm...could he not have ambitions with a name like that!) was way behind the incumbent Republican at first. Mid-July their trajectories crossed and by now the Democrat is ahead around 5 points, just outside of the margin of error. Looking good, but not guaranteed. Not too much else going on in RI, but if we have any shot at winning the Senate, we have to win this one.
Tennessee: The biggest surprise of this year may in the end be how easily Democrats win the TN Senate race. Don't get me wrong! This is a tossup. But Democrat Harold Ford, jr., came up from behind to now be pulling ahead of the Republican incumbent. It is still far from a certain win. But Ford's campaign has been running fairly smoothy and has some very clear momentum. Unlike many races where someone came up from behind, Ford's gain seems to be more rapid than his opponent's decline, indicating he is picking up swing voters, not Republicans who might very likely switch back at the last minute out of party loyalty. Ford's rise has been steady since August. Unless something changes, this may join PA and RI as one of the most likely Dem Senate pickups of the year. As it is, though, it remains within the margin of error and could use some help.
Texas: There are three hot House races in Texas. TX-17 is one where we are defending. Like most of the defense seats this year I think the Republicans just won't be able to muster the resources to win it. The one caveat that may make it worth some attention is that the Republican challenger is one of the ONLY Iraq war vets running as a Republican. That means there is a great deal of incentive for the Republicans to win this one. My gut reaction is this one needs some real defense. TX-22 is our real prize this year. This was the seat that Tom DeLay vacated when he was indicted for corruption. Once thought a "safe Republican" seat, this now leans Democrat. If we win this one it will be a great moral victory over corruption. Democrat Nick Lampson is a good candidate and has an excellent shot at winning. In fact, Tom DeLay is still on the ballot and the real Repub candidate is a write-in! TX-23 is more of a long shot, but still worth fighting for. This is one of the districts that was gerrymandered by Tom DeLay. Democrat Ciro Rodriguez is endorsed by Democracy for America and a is a great grassroots candidate.
Virginia: This Senate race may be our toughest must-win race of the year. We are behind, but if we want to win back the Senate, we almost HAVE to win it. The good news is that the Democrat, Jim Webb, started out WAY WAY behind and tied up by September. The bad news is after September the Republican started regaining ground. We really need to win this: the Republican is a racist with white supremicist connections. To let him win after that was revealed would be a travisty. For that reason I place this as one of our most critical races of the year, similar to AZ-8 House race in its importance in fighting racism in America. In addition there is one close House race. VA-2 probably depends on what happens in the Senate. Republicans see this as leaning Republican, Democrats see it as a tossup. The Democrat, Phil Kellam, is well known in the district, so can put up a good challenge. Last year Virginia wound up being one of the states I considered most important and most worth focusing on. This year it may not be the very top of the list, but it is important! Strategy: I think BOTH these races need attention. Please help win these two races.
Washington State: This looked like it was going to be close. But I think it will wind up being an easy win by the Democratic incumbent. Maria Cantwell now seems to be leading just under the safe "10-point" margin. The Republicans could pull a fast one here, but I think they are too busy defending PA and RI and TN and MT... But there is a close House race. WA-8 is a tossup, pitting Democrat Darcy Burner against a weak Republican incumbent. Burner is outraising her opponent so she has a good shot, but the race is a tossup. Strategy: Help out Burner and it will help pick up a House seat AND solidify a Senate seat. So, help out Burner!
West Virginia has one close House race we might lose. This is one case, however, I can't really muster a strong fight for the Dem incumbent. In WV-1 we have one of the rare cases these days when corruption is affecting the Dem rather than the Republican. Since I make a huge point of fighting Republican corruption, I have to say this is a seat I can't endorse the Democrat. Not that I can endorse the Republican! But given the probably corruption of the Dem, I am willing to let him fight his own battle.
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